Member-only story
Is There a Future For the Rocket Industry?
A dozen startups are shooting for the stars. Can they all succeed?
The rocket industry looks red hot right now. Every week brings half a dozen announcements of new companies, more funding or another failed test launch. And yet, despite the massive amounts of money pouring in, it is not at all clear the rocket industry is really commercially viable.
Much of the excitement is inspired by SpaceX, Elon Musk’s revolutionary rocket company. And while it is true that SpaceX has changed the market and probably earned a lot of money for Musk, few others companies will be able to replicate that success.
Musk’s key insight was the importance of reusable rockets. Before SpaceX almost all rockets were single use, disposed of after each flight. That made them expensive: imagine how much plane tickets would cost if they threw away the aircraft after every flight.
Once SpaceX mastered the technology — one that many industry insiders thought was decades away — they could undercut everyone else. Fifteen years ago, before SpaceX started regular flights, it cost around $10,000 to send a kilogram into orbit. Now that same kilogram can be launched for less than $3,000.
While reusable rockets make a lot of sense commercially, the technology is…
